WHICH HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED AND BECAUSE OTHER COUNTRIES ARE NOT BUYING THOSE US TRESURY NOTES THE FED HAS PURCHASED THEM AT NEAR ZERO APR FOR THE 10 YEAR NOTES WHILE IT WAS A GREAT DEAL AT THE TIME OF THAT TRANSACTION THOSE INTEREST RATES HAVE GONE UP AT LEAST 1 % AND THAT WILL HAVE DRASTIC CONSEQUENCES BECAUSE IT HAS CUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUIDITY AWAY FROM THE FED AND ALSO REMOVE ANY SIGHN OF PROFITS
MY FRIENDS THOSE BANKS WE WOULD LIKE TO KNOW LOVE AND TRUST WILL WIPE YOUR WEALTH AWAY OVER NIGHT IF YOU LEAVE IT OUT OF YOUR POSESSION AND IN THEIR POSSETION THINGS OF REAL TAGIABLE VALUE TANGIABLE ASSETT VALUE WILL RULE THESE NEXT COMIMNG DECADES.
GNS+RESEARCH
FULL ARTICLE
Bond Losses at Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
Aug 02, 2013 5:49 PM EDT
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries (^TNX) has surged 66% over the past three months. And bond investors, especially those with jumbo-sized positions, are getting hammered. How much money has the Federal Reserve lost?
At the end of July, the Federal Reserve held $1.98 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. (See chart below) That figure represents just over half of the Fed's $3.6 trillion balance sheet.
Scott Minerd, the Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners notes:
"Our estimate shows that the spike in bond yields since the first quarter of this year has caused a mark-to-market loss of $192 billion on the Fed's holding assets, equivalent to approximately all of the unrealized gains that the Fed had accumulated since it began to implement quantitative easing in late 2008. Although in keeping with their own accounting principles the Fed does not record mark-to-market losses, a continued increase in bond yields would incur actual losses should the central bank decide to sell assets."
Investments benefiting from rising rates are leveraged short Treasury ETFs like the ProShares UltraShort US Treasury 20+ Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) and the Direxion Shares US Treasury 20+ 3x Bear Shares (NYSEARCA:TMV). Both ETFs have jumped between 30% to 50% over the past three months. Not bad when considering the total U.S. bond market (NYSEARCA:AGG) has lost 2.83% while long-term U.S. Treasuries have fallen an even harder 11% year-to-date.
AUDIO: "The Lance Armstrong of the Investment Business"
Granted, the Bernanke & Co. does not value its massive bond portfolio on a mark-to-market basis. But the surge in interest rates has already erased almost $200 billion in the Federal Reserve's capital. But that's not all.
If interest rates continue to head higher, the value of the Fed's liquid assets that it could sell would decline and further undermine its capital cushion. And if the velocity of rate increases intensifies, the Fed, with only $62 billion in capital, could see its entire capital base completely wiped out.
This could have a serious domino effect. It could paralyze the Fed's ability to defend the dollar's purchasing power, causing Treasury prices (NYSEARCA:TLT) to fall further and thereby push interest rates even higher. Just imagine the unimaginable; a weakened and impotent Fed.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and common sense to be on the right side of the market. Since the beginning of the year, 78% of our ETF picks have turned a profit and 525% was our biggest gainer. (through 6/30/13)
At the end of July, the Federal Reserve held $1.98 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. (See chart below) That figure represents just over half of the Fed's $3.6 trillion balance sheet.
Scott Minerd, the Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners notes:
"Our estimate shows that the spike in bond yields since the first quarter of this year has caused a mark-to-market loss of $192 billion on the Fed's holding assets, equivalent to approximately all of the unrealized gains that the Fed had accumulated since it began to implement quantitative easing in late 2008. Although in keeping with their own accounting principles the Fed does not record mark-to-market losses, a continued increase in bond yields would incur actual losses should the central bank decide to sell assets."
Investments benefiting from rising rates are leveraged short Treasury ETFs like the ProShares UltraShort US Treasury 20+ Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) and the Direxion Shares US Treasury 20+ 3x Bear Shares (NYSEARCA:TMV). Both ETFs have jumped between 30% to 50% over the past three months. Not bad when considering the total U.S. bond market (NYSEARCA:AGG) has lost 2.83% while long-term U.S. Treasuries have fallen an even harder 11% year-to-date.
AUDIO: "The Lance Armstrong of the Investment Business"
Granted, the Bernanke & Co. does not value its massive bond portfolio on a mark-to-market basis. But the surge in interest rates has already erased almost $200 billion in the Federal Reserve's capital. But that's not all.
If interest rates continue to head higher, the value of the Fed's liquid assets that it could sell would decline and further undermine its capital cushion. And if the velocity of rate increases intensifies, the Fed, with only $62 billion in capital, could see its entire capital base completely wiped out.
This could have a serious domino effect. It could paralyze the Fed's ability to defend the dollar's purchasing power, causing Treasury prices (NYSEARCA:TLT) to fall further and thereby push interest rates even higher. Just imagine the unimaginable; a weakened and impotent Fed.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and common sense to be on the right side of the market. Since the beginning of the year, 78% of our ETF picks have turned a profit and 525% was our biggest gainer. (through 6/30/13)
DR JONES:
As interest rates rise, Fed goes broke
Aug 03, 2013
Fox Business News has an article showing the effect of the recent rise in interest rates. Recall that interest rates have risen by 1% in the past two months. That does not sound like much, but it has caused new bond yields to rise over 66%. The previously issued low-interest bonds thus drop in value by 66%.Because China and other nations are no longer purchasing Treasury bonds at previous rates, the Fed has stepped in, purchasing them at near-zero interest rates. Bond values are determined by their yield on interest. But when interest rates rise, the value of the previous low-interest bonds plunges. The Fed has had little choice but to purchase the Treasury bonds to keep the Federal Government solvent through the creation of new money, but there are financial consequences that they may not be able to avoid. First, debasing the currency requires a great deal of manipulation to keep inflation under control. Secondly, a rise of just one more percent in interest rates could make the Fed itself insolvent.
Here is an article that estimates the losses at the Fed.
http://m.foxbusiness.com/quickPage.html?page=32811&content=95630138&pageNum=-1
Bond Losses at Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries (^TNX) has surged 66% over the past three months. And bond investors, especially those with jumbo-sized positions, are getting hammered. How much money has the Federal Reserve lost?
At the end of July, the Federal Reserve held $1.98 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. (See chart below) That figure represents just over half of the Fed's $3.6 trillion balance sheet.
Scott Minerd, the Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners notes:
"Our estimate shows that the spike in bond yields since the first quarter of this year has caused a mark-to-market loss of $192 billion on the Fed's holding assets, equivalent to approximately all of the unrealized gains that the Fed had accumulated since it began to implement quantitative easing in late 2008. Although in keeping with their own accounting principles the Fed does not record mark-to-market losses, a continued increase in bond yields would incur actual losses should the central bank decide to sell assets."...
But that's not all.
If interest rates continue to head higher, the value of the Fed's liquid assets that it could sell would decline and further undermine its capital cushion. And if the velocity of rate increases intensifies, the Fed, with only $62 billion in capital, could see its entire capital base completely wiped out.
