http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doomsday-poll-87-risk-of-stock-crash-by-year-end-2013-06-05
10 SOURCES OF REPORTS FROM MARKET INVESTORS THOSES APPOINTED TO CHAIRMAN AND SO CALLED GURU'S? GNS+RESEARCH
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doomsday-poll-87-risk-of-stock-crash-by-year-end-2013-06-05 [page 1.
Here are 10 other predictions adding credibility to a
crash by the end of 2013:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doomsday-poll-87-risk-of-stock-crash-by-year-end-2013-06-05?pagenumber=2 Page 2.
1. Warren Buffett ‘guaranteed’ new bubble, new recession four years ago
Actually he saw it coming early. Shortly after the 2008
crash Warren Buffett was asked: “Do you think there will be another bubble
leading to a huge recession?” Yes, “I can guarantee it.” Cycles happen.
Next question: “Why can’t we learn the lessons of the
last recession? Look where greed has gotten us.” Then with the impish grin of a
Zen master, Uncle Warren replied, “Greed is fun for a while. People can’t resist
it.” But “however far human beings have come, we haven’t grown up emotionally at
all. We remain the same.”
Yes, one of world’s richest men was personally
guaranteeing another bubble, another “huge recession.” Now, four years later,
that time bomb is ticking louder, closer.
2. Federal Reserve’s Council: ‘Unsustainable bubble in stocks, bonds’
The International Business Times just reported on the
minutes of the Federal Reserve Board Advisory Council’s mid-May meeting. Members
expressed “strong concerns over the Fed’s low-interest-rate policies and its
bond-purchase program, which they say could trigger unmanageable inflation and
an ‘unsustainable bubble’ in the stock and bond markets.” Some “pointed out that
near-zero interest rates could not be sustained in the long run.”
Why? “A spike in inflation could force the Fed to hike
interest rates, hurting business confidence and consumer spending, and prove
disastrous to the U.S. economy, which is still clawing its way back from the
debilitating effects of the 2008 financial crisis.”
Get it? The Fed and Wall Street insiders hear something’s
dead ahead.
3. Peter Schiff is ‘doubling down’ on his ‘doomsday’ prediction
Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, author of “The
Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy,” is “not backing away from doomsday
predictions about the U.S. economy,” wrote MarketWatch’s Greg Robb last week. He
sees the no-win scenario: “Either the Fed stops QE and starts selling the
Treasurys and mortgage-related assets on its balance sheet, thus triggering a
recession, or else faces an inevitable, even-worse, currency crisis.”
The “idea that the U.S. economy is in recovery is based
entirely on rising asset prices ... Asset prices are only rising because rates
are low. As soon as rates go back up, asset prices will” fall.
Last year on Fox Business Schiff warned: “We’ve got a
much bigger collapse coming.” Then last week: “I am 100% confident the crisis
that we’re going to have will be much worse than the one we had in 2008.” His
100% beats our 87%.
4. Bill Gross: ‘Credit supernova’ turning 2013 bull into big bad bear
Yes, Gross sees a ‘credit supernova’ dead ahead. His firm
has $2 trillion at risk when the Federal Reserve cheap money finally explodes in
America’s face, brings down the economy, again. Gross warns: “Investment
banking, which only a decade ago promoted small-business development and
transition to public markets, now is dominated by leveraged speculation and the
Ponzi finance.”
Bernanke’s Ponzi finance is self-destructive, lethal and
massive. Endless cheap money upsets the balance between credit expansion and
real economic growth, resulting in diminishing returns. Very bad news.
5. Gary Shilling predicts the ‘grand disconnect’ will trigger ‘shocker’
Yes, economist Gary Shilling predicts a “shocker” before
the end of the year. Worse because investors are “paying little attention to
weak and declining economies around the world, and concentrating on the flood of
money being created by central banks.”
The “grand disconnect” is driving up stocks “while the
zeal for yield, amidst low interest rates, benefited junk bonds and other
low-quality debt.” Wall Street’s blowing a nasty new bubble, repeating the
run-up to the 2008 crash.
6. ‘Kaboom ahead,’ an ‘ominous third phase’ of 2008 Meltdown
“Bond guru buying stocks. Sees ‘Kaboom’ Ahead,” shouted
the Bloomberg Market headline about Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital.
Earlier he predicted the 2008 meltdown. But now he says the real damage is yet
to come.
“The first phase of the coming debacle consisted of a
27-year buildup of corporate, personal and sovereign debt. That lasted until
2008.” Then cheap money “finally toppled banks and pushed the global economy
into a recession, spurring governments and central banks to spend trillions of
dollars to stimulate growth.” Next, an “ominous third phase,” a bigger crash,
whose impact will far exceed the damage of 2008.
What’s he buying? Hard assets. Plus “sitting on cash,”
waiting to scoop up more at “fire-sale” prices, “it’s worth waiting.”
7. ‘Tick, tick ... boom!’ InvestmentNews sees bond crash dead ahead
A few months ago InvestmentNews front page is so powerful
you can hear sirens on a flashing, warning in huge bold type: “Tick, tick ...
boom!” Their readers: 90,000 professional advisers who trust INews forecasts.
This was the biggest warning since 2008: “What will your
clients’ portfolios look like when the bond bomb goes off?” Not “if” but “when.”
Yes, they expect the bond bomb to explode soon.
Wake up, INews sees extreme dangers for millions of
Americans who have “no idea what’s about to happen to them ... Tick, tick ...
boom!”
8. Reagan’s budget director sees an ‘apocalypse ... get out now’
Recently David Stockman warned of an economic
“apocalypse” dead ahead, “arising from a rogue central bank that has abetted the
Wall Street casino, crucified savers on a cross of zero interest rates and
fueled a global commodity bubble that erodes Main Street living standards
through rising food and energy prices ... get out of the markets and hide out in
cash.”
Stockman’s not merely warning of a crash ending the bull
rally since 2009. This “grand bubble” has been building for 32 years since the
Reagan revolution. He’s atoning for a generation of politicians with no moral
compass: “Capitalism has morphed into a monopoly ruled by politicians who are
serving a wealthy elite. Competition is a joke.”
9. Nouriel Roubini: ‘Prepare for the perfect storm’ in an unstable world
Yes, prepare, prepare, prepare. Roubini told Slate.com:
Our world is a game of dominos, any one of which could put in motion a global
collapse: “Sooner or later, another ugly fight” over debt, markets will “become
spooked” with “a significant amount of drag ... on an economy that has grown at
barely a 2% rate.”
Scanning the world’s hot-button triggers in the euro
zone, China, BRICs, Iran, Middle East, Pakistan, oil markets, Dr. Doom warns,
the “drums of actual war will beat harder.” Any one of these trends “alone would
be enough to stall the global economy and tip it into recession.”
10. Jeremy Grantham: America’s growth and prosperity ‘gone forever’
Grantham’s GMO firm manages $100 billion. He focused on
Richard Gordon’s disturbing research: “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?” Yes, says
Grantham, “the U.S. GDP growth rate ... is gone forever.”
For centuries before the Industrial Revolution growth was
under 1%. Then the growth trend till “1980 was remarkable: 3.4% a year for a
full hundred years,” driving the American dream. “But after 1980 the trend began
to slip,” says Grantham,“ by over 1.5% from its peak in the 1960s and nearly 1%
from the average of the last 30 years.” By 2100, America’s GDP growth will fall
back to where it started before the Industrial Revolution, to an annual rate
less than 1%.
Buffett guarantees ... Schiff doubles down ... Gross sees
supernova ... Shilling’s grand disconnect ... Gundlach’s ominous third phase ...
Stockman’s apocalypse ... InvestmentNews tick, tick, boom ... Roubini’s perfect
storm ... Grantham’s growth gone forever ... place your bets at Wall Street’s
casinos ... the risk’s only 87% ... or is it 100%?
Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist
based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.
